The EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program remains one of the most effective pathways to U.S. permanent residency for investors worldwide. However, with growing global demand, the issue of visa retrogression has once again come into sharp focus—especially for applicants from high- demand countries like India and China.
As of mid-2025, the EB-5 program is undergoing significant changes, driven by both retrogression in the unreserved visa categories and ongoing availability in the newly created set-aside categories. This article unpacks where we stand today and what investors can expect in the near future.
✧ What Is EB-5 Retrogression?
Retrogression refers to the backward movement of priority dates in the U.S. Visa Bulletin, signaling that demand for green cards in a specific visa category or from a particular country has outpaced the annual supply. When retrogression occurs, applicants with priority dates beyond the listed cut-off must wait longer to proceed with visa issuance or adjustment of status.
Each year, around 10,000 EB-5 visas are available, with no more than 7% reserved for any single country. When this quota is exceeded, the backlog begins.
✧ Breakdown: Reserved vs. Unreserved EB-5 Categories
The EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 introduced set-aside visa categories aimed at channeling investment to underserved regions of the U.S. These reserved visas account for approximately 32% of the total EB-5 allocation:
- 20% reserved for Rural projects
- 10% reserved for High-Unemployment Areas (HUAs)
- 2% reserved for Infrastructure projects
The remaining 68% of EB-5 visas fall under the unreserved (traditional) category.
Key Distinction:
- Unreserved EB-5 visas are subject to severe retrogression for China and
- Set-aside EB-5 categories remain “Current”, meaning investors can proceed without delay —for now.
✧ For Current Visa Bulletin Click on the Link 👉: Visa Bulletin
✧ Why the Set-Asides Remain Untouched by Retrogression—So Far
Set-aside categories are new, and demand—especially for rural and infrastructure projects—has not yet exceeded visa supply. This has enabled investors using these categories to file I-526E petitions and I-485 adjustments concurrently, receiving EADs and travel permits within months.
However, that window of opportunity may not stay open for long.
✧ The Inevitable: Will Set-Aside Categories Also Face Retrogression?
Industry experts and official sources have cautioned that retrogression in the set-aside categories is likely to occur in FY 2025 or early FY 2026 if the current pace of demand continues. Here’s why:
- Surging Popularity: Indian and Chinese investors, facing delays in the unreserved pool, are increasingly turning to set-aside projects.
- Finite Allocation: Once the annual visa cap for a reserved category is met, a cut-off date must be imposed.
- Backlog Build-Up: While processing times for I-526E are still stabilizing, approvals may outpace the reserved visa allotment by early 2026.
Projected Timeline:
- Rural Set-Aside: May remain current until late FY 2025, with risk of retrogression by Q1 2026
- HUA Set-Aside: Likely to see cutoff sooner, due to higher investor interest
- Infrastructure: Least demand—may remain current longer
✧ Implications for Investors
For Indian and Chinese Applicants
If your priority date is after November 2019 (India) or December 2015 (China) and you’re in the unreserved pool, you will likely face multi-year delays in green card processing.
Solution: Consider reapplying through a set-aside EB-5 project, especially rural options, to access a faster and more predictable path.
Time-Sensitive Opportunity
While reserved categories are still current, investors have a limited window to file before retrogression begins there as well. Concurrent filing remains a major advantage—allowing:
- EAD (Work Authorization)
- Advance Parole (Travel Permission)
- Status security for families with aging-out children
